How to use big data to bet on football

Although I know quite a bit about football, I don’t dare to bet money on the matches. I just know it won’t make any profit for me. To make real money with gambling, people have a significant disadvantage: emotion. For example, I expect my club AFC Ajax to always win, which often ends up disappointing me. And more people lose money almost every week.

Betting experts from Bookmakers

But for all these people and myself, a solution seems to have been found. The betting experts from the Bookmakers Europe company calculates, based on a lot of data, what you can best bet on. This is not only limited to the tote: you can also see what the result will be, whether both teams will score and how many goals will be scored. In other words, big data can be the solution for all passionate gamblers.

Understand the prediction

To better understand what the predictions are based on, I spoke with a betting expert from Bookmakers Europe company. “Our predictions come from a combination of all kinds of statistics,” he says. “For example, the general results of a football club are included, but also team performances and players are considered.”

Predicting football is extraordinary in itself. “Many researchers emphasize that football is the most difficult sport to predict,” says an expert from the bookmaker site. He said: “For example, unlike many other sports for sports betting, there are three possible outcomes of a match is clearly visible. All in all, a prediction with the reliability of close to 100% is absolutely not feasible in football.”. This may sound logical, but there is a lot of work behind such predictions. “In team form, we look at things like possession, several shots, passing precision and goals”. The format is based entirely on the performance of a club’s last five games. “That is why it is still difficult, for example, to estimate the first five games of the season: the results of the previous season are no longer relevant,” he says.

Large database from Bookmakers Europe

Due to the large database that Bookmakers Europe has built up over the years, it is also possible to see if there is a connection between the performance of a team and the weather. For example, it may be that a team like FC Twente wins more often when it rains.

In the rain, trainers often insist on shooting more from a distance because the ball can sometimes slip through the hands of a keeper. Then if there is a team with good long-range shooters, they are more likely to score, “said Kornilov. The exact impact of this is only tricky to estimate. Therefore, we look at all previous club games in similar weather to make sure that we do. See how significant the influence of the temperature is.

Even though performances of individual players are included, they do not always count very heavily. “Football teams are often big enough to take in an injured player. For example, the withdrawal of Cristiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid does not have a massive influence because there are suitable substitutes. But if Ronaldo drops out of the Portuguese team, the consequences are severe.

All matches are included in the predictions, which means that the forecast may change during the week (European football, for example). For example, a perfect match in a European context can ensure that that team’s chances of winning also increase at the weekend or the other way around.

High reliability of the predictions

Given the high reliability of the predictions (between 60-70%, and sometimes even towards 90%), you would expect members to entirely rely on Betegy’s data. Nothing is less accurate. “We see that our members mainly use the data as a kind of the second opinion. They often still prefer their own feelings. And that’s why bookmakers still make a profit. When calculating the profit distribution, they ignore which team has the best chance, but the most money is bet on which team. “For example, Galatasaray played against Manchester United a few years ago. Although Galatasaray was more likely to win, much more money was put into Manchester United, which resulted in a lower payout percentage.

Nevertheless, I am going to rely entirely on the advice that gives. After all, looking at the company’s numbers should be the right way to make money with more certainty. Since luck isn’t always on my side, that’s quite a comforting thought.